Tory Gerrymandering

The Guardian reports David Cameron's plan to reduce the number of MPs at Westminster by ten per cent:

The Tories would not change the number of Scottish constituencies, which were cut at the behest of English cabinet ministers, such as Jack Straw, as the price of their support for a Scottish parliament. But Cameron would reduce the number of Welsh seats from 40 to around 30 and would cut small inner-city constituencies. These changes would benefit the Tories.

When Scottish constituency boundaries were altered (years after they should have been) the number of Scottish MPs at Westminster was reduced from 72 to 59 to bring Scottish constituency sizes broadly in line with those in England.

Any reduction in the number of English MPs should be accompanied by a proportionate reduction in Scottish MPs, especially as Scotland now has a legislative parliament and national government which have the effect of reducing the caseload of Scottish MPs whilst providing fewer opportunities for them to represent the legitimate interests of their constituents at Westminster (and they will be excluded from Committee and Report Stages under Ken Clarke's scheme).

So why maintain Scottish numbers when the Tories only have one Scottish MP?

1. The Tories do not want to antagonise Scottish nationalists in any way, and they will resist any measure that could lead to them being cast in the role of the anti-Scottish nasty-party.

2. The Tories want to ensure they have at least one Scottish MP, and maintaining Scottish representation at Westminster is the surest way of achieving their goal.

3. Although, in theory, a higher proportion of Scottish MPs increases the likelihood of the West Lothian Question being raised, a reduction in the numbers of inner-city Labour MPs in England reduces the chance of Scottish Labour MPs tipping the balance.

By these means Cameron increases the chances of having at least one Scottish Tory at Westminster, the Scots see him treating Scotland favourably, he reduces Labour's parliamentary numbers, and lessens the propensity for the West Lothian Question to raised when the House divides along party lines (as it invariably does).

As for the Welsh, I think they have reason to feel aggrieved, especially as the Tories are dithering on law-making powers for the Welsh Assembly.